Predictions for 2022 and what that portends

1, Roe v Wade will be gutted by SCOTUS. The impact in Red states will be immediate. The political battle will move to the states. Blue states will have an avalanche of abortion tourism.  Purple states will be the new political battle ground. The biggest losers will be poor women in Red states who cannot afford to travel to a blue state for healthcare. Maternal death rate spirals.  The fanatics in the Red states will move to other culture war fronts, e.g., birth control, same sex marriage, transsexuals, miscegenation, voting restrictions to property holders. The middle term will improve for women throughout the nation when the morning after pill becomes discreetly available online and there are no clinics for the zealots to attack.

2. Covid becomes endemic. Continued vaccinations will help, but the world to too far gone to eliminate the virus in time. Science may make a breakthrough that defeats the mutation ability, but until then many more will die, and the long-term effects of infections may get worse. The death rate continues to diverge between blue states and red states.

3. Russia invades Ukraine. The western powers will do everything short of military action. Europe will not risk lost of gas for heating in winter over Ukraine sovereignty. After Trump they learned the US is not a reliable partner. Massive refugee fleeing the advance.  Some covert assistance to the resistance. Russia will eventually suffer the same result as Afghanistan in 1980. Ethnic Ukrainians may not have the religious zealotry that the Afghan fighters did, but they will not go lightly. Corruption in Russian society permeates even the military.  Between the economic penalty and Russians coming home in body bags, Putin will be pressed to negotiate the boundary.

4. China seizes Taiwan. Another global disaster. Many deaths. The Taiwanese will resist in everyway possible. Like the Uyghurs they will test the ruling elite. Economic fallout will be global as Covid exacerbates the supply chain problems.  China will kill the goose (global economy) that lays golden eggs. Hong Kong and Tibet will continue to resist. Xi will ultimately be deposed.

5. Climate changes become unstoppable. Just as the public became fatigued with masks and social distancing, the call for action on climate change falls on increasing deaf ears in Washington. Extreme weather events will remind us that our fatigue is irrelevant in the march to disasters.