Trump Can Win in 2024

I think he can slog through the legal issues by stalling and still keep his 30% of MAGA. If he fund raises enough off the publicity, he might buy another 3-5% of the primary voters. With 6-8 challengers and winner-take-all primaries he can be the nominee. For the general the full employment economy would have to go bad. The Ukraine war is another big unknown. Another year of large military aid could work for Trump. Ukraine would be a wasteland with massive refugees. Although Russia would be weaker, Putin has no option but to press on. If Zelensky is not around, the Ukraine government could agree to a ceasefire. Trump would try to take credit. Americans always hope for a 99 hour war Ala Iraq.

Of course, another known unknown will the Pandemic return in strength?

If this scenario plays out badly, Biden will have his hands full.